After consolidating for two weeks, the Nifty finally appeared to be flexing its muscles for a potential move higher. Over the past five sessions, the Nifty traded with an underlying positive bias and ended near the week’s high point while also attempting to move past a crucial pattern resistance. The past week saw the Index oscillating in the 527-point range, which was in line with the previous weeks. The volatility also cooled off; the India VIX came off by 9% to 14.63 on a weekly basis. While staying largely in a range trading with a positive bias, the headline Index closed with a net weekly gain of 252.35 points (+1.02%).
Over the past couple of weeks, the Nifty has traded in a well-defined range created between 24500-25100 levels. This would mean that the markets would remain devoid of directional bias unless they take out 25100 on the higher side or violate the 24500 level. Despite visibly strong undercurrents, staying reactive to the markets rather than getting predictive would be prudent. Although there are heightened possibilities of the Nifty taking out the 25100 level, we must consider it as resistance until it is taken out convincingly.
The coming week is set to see a stable start; the levels of 25150 and 25400 are likely to act as resistance points. The supports come in at 24800 and 24500. The trading range is expected to get wider than usual.
The weekly RSI is 60.94; it continues to remain neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and remains above its signal line. A strong white candle emerged; this shows the bullish trend that the markets had during the week.
A pattern analysis of the weekly chart shows that the Nifty resisted the upward rising trendline that began from the low of 21350 and joined the subsequent rising bottoms. The Nifty has attempted to penetrate it after resisting it for a couple of weeks.
Overall, the coming week may see the markets trading with an underlying bullish bias. However, for this to culminate in a good trending move, the Index will have to take out the 25100-25150 zone convincingly on the upside. Until this happens, the markets may continue to consolidate in a broad trading range. Unless there is a strong move that surpasses the 25100-25150 zone, one must consider this level as an immediate resistance point. Some pockets have run up too hard over the past few days; one must also focus on protecting gains at current levels rather than chasing the up moves. Fresh purchases must be kept limited in stocks with strong technical setups and the presence of relative strength. A cautiously positive approach is advised for the coming week.
Sector Analysis for the coming week
In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of all the listed stocks.
Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that the Nifty PSU Bank Index continues to build on its relative momentum while staying inside the leading quadrant. It may continue outperforming the markets relatively. The Infrastructure, Consumption, and PSE Index are also inside the leading quadrant but are seen giving up on their relative momentum.
The Nifty Bank Index has rolled inside the weakening quadrant. The Nifty Services Sector, Financial Services, and Commodity Indice are also inside the weakening quadrant. Individual performance of components from these groups may be seen, but overall relative performance may slow down over the coming weeks.
The Nifty FMCG Index has rolled inside the lagging quadrant. The Nifty Metal and Pharma Indice are languishing in this quadrant. The Nifty IT index is also inside the lagging quadrant but is seen in a strong bottoming-out process while improving its relative momentum.
The Nifty Energy, Media, Realty, and Auto Indices are inside the improving quadrant and may continue improving their relative performance against the broader markets.
Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.
Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Consulting Technical Analyst